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Uncertainty & inference

Showing 1–27 of 27 reference entries

Mathematics & logic · Physics · MeasurementEstimation and uncertainty

Distinguish exact model values, rounded approximations and estimates from measurements. Declare the rounding rule, preserve information through calculations and unit changes, and interpret resolution, precision, accuracy and the stated uncertainty type without turning a report’s digits into guaranteed bounds.

Definition
Physics · MeasurementObservables and measurement

Choose the physical quantity you want to investigate, specify the point, event or location involved, and explain how a reading relates to that quantity.

Method
MeasurementMetrological traceability

Connect a result to a reference through documented calibrations.

Definition
Measurement · Mathematics & logicFirst-order uncertainty propagation

Combine input uncertainty through a measurement model.

Method
MeasurementCalibration

Relate indications to standards, then infer measurement results.

Definition
MeasurementType A and Type B uncertainty evaluation

The classification describes how a component is evaluated.

Method
MeasurementExpanded uncertainty and coverage

A coverage factor scales standard uncertainty to a reported interval.

Method
Measurement · Mathematics & logicCovariance in uncertainty models

Shared input variation belongs in the joint uncertainty description.

Method
MeasurementMeasurement models

Specify how input quantities determine the measurand.

Method
Measurement · InformationMonte Carlo uncertainty propagation

Sample the joint input model to approximate the output distribution.

Method
MeasurementOperational uncertainty budget

An uncertainty budget states the measurement model, input estimates, standard uncertainties, distributions, covariances, sensitivities, evaluation methods and degrees of freedom, together with how they combine and any coverage factor.

Method
MeasurementUncertainty of a replicate mean

For n independent identically distributed observations of a stable quantity with finite variance, the replicate-mean standard uncertainty is estimated by s/√n, where s²=Σ_j(x_j−x̄)²/(n−1).

Method
MeasurementConverting information to standard uncertainty

An assigned rectangular distribution on estimate±a gives u=a/√3, while a symmetric triangular distribution on the same interval gives u=a/√6.

Method
MeasurementEffective degrees of freedom and approximate coverage

For independent input standard-uncertainty estimates in a linearized model, Welch–Satterthwaite gives ν_eff=u_c⁴/Σ_i[(c_i u_i)⁴/ν_i].

Method
MeasurementReporting a measurement result and coverage

A reusable measurement report identifies the measurand, value and unit, relevant conditions and corrections, and whether uncertainty is standard u_c or expanded U.

Method
MeasurementWorked scalar correction and uncertainty budget

An illustrative temperature model y=x̄+C+δ has x̄=20.00 °C from four independent readings with s=0.20 K, C=+0.50 K with u_C=0.20 K, and independent zero-centered δ uniform on ±0.05 K.

Method
MeasurementVector measurement uncertainty and a two-output example

For a differentiable real model Y=f(X), first-order output covariance is Σ_Y≈JΣ_XJᵀ, J_ai=∂f_a/∂x_i at the input estimate; the rule is exact for an affine model with finite input covariance.

Method
MeasurementExact nonlinear uncertainty example

In a constructed scalar model Y=X² with X uniformly distributed on [−a,a], a>0, exact distribution propagation gives E(Y)=a²/3 and Var(Y)=4a⁴/45, hence u(Y)=2a²/√45.

Method
MeasurementCalibrated first-order dynamic measurement

For a validated linear first-order sensor model τẏ+y=Kx with τ>0, a step to x_f gives y(t)=Kx_f+[y(0)−Kx_f]e^(−t/τ).

Model
MeasurementNonlinear correlated output propagation

For a vector measurand Y=f(X), propagating a joint input distribution retains output dependence and non-Gaussian shape.

Mathematical statement
MeasurementJoint Gaussian coverage and estimated covariance

For a nonsingular m-variate Gaussian assigned distribution with mean y and known covariance U, (Y−y)ᵀU⁻¹(Y−y)≤χ²_(m,p) gives probability p.

Method
MeasurementMultivariate Monte Carlo and region validation

Monte Carlo draws from the joint input model and evaluates all outputs from each common draw.

Method
MeasurementDefinitional uncertainty

More repetitions do not resolve an underspecified measurand.

Definition
MeasurementRelative standard uncertainty

Relative uncertainty uses a nonzero measured magnitude.

Definition
MeasurementBlank indications and null measurement uncertainty

A zero or blank reading can still have uncertainty.

Definition
MeasurementTarget measurement uncertainty

An intended-use target differs from achieved uncertainty.

Definition
MeasurementRounding a result with its uncertainty

Report useful digits without treating extra digits as proof of accuracy.

Method